By Economic analysts are optimistic about Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2025, forecasting an average growth rate of 4% while expecting inflation to drop below 30%. Despite persistent challenges such as high public debt and dependence on crude oil, they believe fiscal discipline and policy reforms will drive economic stability.
Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, downplayed fears of a recession, citing Nigeria’s strong economic fundamentals. Speaking at an economic summit in Lagos, he pointed out that seven out of 12 key economic indicators are trending positively, while five remain concerning.
He highlighted recent policy moves, including a 50% hike in telecom charges, a decline in inflation to 24%, and changes in money supply growth. The Naira’s fluctuation from N1,910 to N1,150 before stabilizing also suggests reduced volatility in the financial markets.
Rewane noted that higher government tax revenues have led to lower consumer spending, with nationwide sales dropping by 15% and northern Nigeria experiencing sharper declines of 40–45% due to higher poverty levels. “Revenue is not synonymous with growth,” he stressed, arguing that economic expansion depends on broader investment and business activities.
Despite past struggles, Nigeria’s total factor productivity has turned positive for the first time in a decade, reducing recession risks. GDP figures are projected between $228 billion and $300 billion, with potential growth to $500 billion after economic rebasing.
With key sectors stabilizing and improving productivity, analysts believe Nigeria’s economy is on track for steady recovery, positioning the country for long-term growth in the coming years.
